At 9 a.m. Eastern Time on April 3, 2026, oil was priced at $112.42 per barrel with Brent serving as the benchmark (weâll explain different benchmarks later in this article). Thatâs a gain of 73 cents compared with yesterday morning and around $34 higher than the price one year ago.
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Will oil prices go up?
Itâs impossible to forecast oil prices with detailed precision. Many different elements affect the market, but ultimately it boils down to supply and demand. When worries about economic recession, war, and other large-scale disruptions increase, oilâs path can shift fast.
How oil prices translate to gas pump prices
Gas prices at the pump donât only track crude oil. They also include what it takes to refine and move that fuel, the taxes layered on top, and the extra markup your local station adds to stay in business.
Since crude oil generally makes up a majority of the per-gallon cost, changes in its price have an outsized impact. When oil surges, gas prices typically rise in tandem. But when oil retreats, gas prices often lag on the way down, a trend sometimes described as ârockets and feathers.â
The role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve
In case of emergency, the U.S. has a store of crude oil known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its primary purpose is energy security in case of disaster (think sanctions, severe storm damage, even war). But it can also go a long way toward softening crippling price hikes during supply shocks.
Itâs not a long-term answer and is more meant to provide temporary relief, assisting consumers and keeping critical parts of the economy running, like key industries, emergency services, public transportation, etc.
How oil and natural gas prices are linked
Both oil and natural gas are key sources of the energy we use every day. Because of this, a big change in oil prices can affect natural gas. For example, if oil prices increase, some industries may swap natural gas for some segments of their operations where possible, which increases demand for natural gas.
Historical performance of oil
To gauge oilâs performance, we often turn to two benchmarks:
- Brent crude oil, the main global oil benchmark.
- West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main benchmark of North America
Between these two, Brent better represents global oil performance because it prices much of the worldâs traded crude. And, itâs often the best way to track historical oil performance. In fact, even the U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.
Looking at the Brent benchmark across several decades, oil has been anything but steady. Itâs seen spikes due to factors such as wars and supply cuts, and itâs also seen crashes from global recessions and an oversupply (called a âglutâ). For example:
- The early 1970s brought the first big oil shock when the Middle East cut exports and imposed an embargo on the U.S. and others during the Yom Kippur War.
- Prices dropped in the mid-1980s for reasons such as lower demand and more non-OPEC oil producers entering the industry.
- Prices spiked again in 2008 with increased global demand, but it soon plummeted alongside the global financial crisis.
- During the 2020 COVID lockdown, oil demand collapsed like never beforeâbringing prices below $20 per barrel.
All to say, oilâs historical performance has been anything but smooth. Again, itâs hugely affected by wars, recessions, OPEC whims, evolving energy initiatives and policies, and much more.
Energy coverage from Fortune
Looking to stay up-to-date regarding the latest energy developments? Check out our recent coverage:
- Paul Krugman argues that $4 gas is âless than halfâ of the Hormuz hit
- The Iran war could accelerate countries seeking âstructurally more resilientâ energy
- UK accuses Iran of Hormuz âhijack,â holding global economy hostage
Frequently asked questions
How is the current price of oil per barrel actually determined?
The current price of oil per barrel depends largely on supply and demand, including news about potential future supply and demand (geopolitics, decisions made by OPEC+, etc.). In the U.S., prices also move based on how friendly an administration is to drilling, as it can affect future supply. For example, 2025 saw the Trump administration move to reopen more than 1.5 million acres in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and gas leasing, reversing the Biden administrationâs policy of limiting oil drilling in the Arctic.
How often does the price of oil change during the day?
The price of oil updates constantly when the âfuturesâ markets are open. A futures market is effectively an auction where people agree to buy or sell oil in the future. As long as people and companies are trading contracts, the oil price is changing.
How does U.S. shale oil production affect the current price of oil?
In short, shale is rock that contains oil and natural gas. Think of shale as energy yet to be tapped. The more shale the U.S. accesses, the more energy weâll haveâand the more easily oil prices can keep from spiking as much thanks to a greater supply.
How does the current price of oil impact inflation and the broader economy?
When oil is expensive, it tends to make everyday items cost more. This can be related to energy (your heating, gas utilities, etc.), but itâs also due to the logistics involved with making those items accessible to you. Shipping, for example, can affect the price of things at the grocery store, as itâs more expensive to get those products from warehouses and farms onto the shelf.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
