As of 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on March 31, 2026, oil is trading at $110.69 per barrel, based on the Brent benchmark weâll explain in a bit. Thatâs 41 cents below yesterday morningâs levelâbut about $35 higher than where it stood a year ago.
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Will oil prices go up?
No one can say for sure where oil prices will go next. Many forces shape the marketâbut at the core, itâs still about supply and demand. When risks like a potential recession or war ramp up, oil prices can change direction quickly.
How oil prices translate to gas pump prices
When you buy gas at the pump, youâre covering more than the cost of crude oil. Youâre also paying for every step in the process, including refineries, wholesalers, taxes, and the markup your local gas station adds.
Even so, crude oil has the biggest influence on what you pay, often making up more than half the cost per gallon. When oil prices jump, gas prices usually climb right along with them. But when oil falls, gas prices often slip much more slowlyâa pattern sometimes called ârockets and feathers.â
The role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve
If an emergency hits, the U.S. keeps a backup supply of crude oil called the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Itâs mainly there to protect energy security during crises, such as sanctions, catastrophic storm damage, even war. It can also help cushion the blow when supply shocks send prices soaring.
Itâs not meant to solve long-term problems. Instead, it provides quick relief for consumers and helps keep vital parts of the economy moving, like essential industries, emergency services, and public transit.
How oil and natural gas prices are linked
Oil and natural gas are two of the worldâs primary energy sources. A big change in oil prices can affect natural gas by extension. For example, if oil prices increase, some industries may swap natural gas for some segments of their operations where possible, which which increases demand for natural gas.
Historical performance of oil
When looking at how oil performs, two main benchmarks stand out:
- Brent crude oil is the main global oil benchmark.
- West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is the main benchmark of North America.
Of the two, Brent gives a better picture of global oil performance because it prices a large share of the worldâs traded crude. Itâs also the go-to for tracking oilâs historical trends. In fact, even the U.S. Energy Information Administration now relies on Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.
If you look at the Brent benchmark over several decades, oil has been far from stable. It has experienced sharp rises tied to wars and supply cuts, along with steep drops linked to global recessions and oversupply (called a âglutâ). For example:
- The early 1970s delivered the first major oil shock when the Middle East slashed exports and placed an embargo on the U.S. and others during the Yom Kippur War.
- Prices fell in the mid-1980s due to lower demand and an influx of non-OPEC oil producers joining the market.
- Prices surged again in 2008 as global demand grew, but then crashed alongside the global financial crisis.
- During the 2020 COVID lockdown, oil demand plummeted like never beforeâpushing prices below $20 per barrel.
To sum up, oilâs historical performance has been anything but smooth. Again, itâs heavily influenced by wars, recessions, OPEC whims, shifting energy policies, and much more.
Energy coverage from Fortune
Looking to stay up-to-date regarding the latest energy developments? Check out our recent coverage:
- India seeks U.S. help to produce more oil and wean itself off Russia, Middle East reliance
- S&P set for another loss following worst week since Iran War began as oil keeps climbing
- Trump said the Iran war was âvery completeâ three weeks ago. Oil has surged 50% since
Frequently asked questions
How is the current price of oil per barrel actually determined?
The current price of oil per barrel depends largely on supply and demand, including news about potential future supply and demand (geopolitics, decisions made by OPEC+, etc.). In the U.S., prices also move based on how friendly an administration is to drilling, as it can affect future supply. For example, 2025 saw the Trump administration move to reopen more than 1.5 million acres in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and gas leasing, reversing the Biden administrationâs policy of limiting oil drilling in the Arctic.
How often does the price of oil change during the day?
The price of oil updates constantly when the âfuturesâ markets are open. A futures market is effectively an auction where people agree to buy or sell oil in the future. As long as people and companies are trading contracts, the oil price is changing.
How does U.S. shale oil production affect the current price of oil?
In short, shale is rock that contains oil and natural gas. Think of shale as energy yet to be tapped. The more shale the U.S. accesses, the more energy weâll haveâand the more easily oil prices can keep from spiking as much thanks to a greater supply.
How does the current price of oil impact inflation and the broader economy?
When oil is expensive, it tends to make everyday items cost more. This can be related to energy (your heating, gas utilities, etc.), but itâs also due to the logistics involved with making those items accessible to you. Shipping, for example, can affect the price of things at the grocery store, as itâs more expensive to get those products from warehouses and farms onto the shelf.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com